Yoichi (余市町), a town of roughly 17,000 on Hokkaido’s western coast, announced on Feb. 24 that it will double its birth celebration payments (shussan iwaikin) starting in fiscal year 2026. The third-child-and-beyond payout jumps from ¥500,000 to ¥1,000,000. First and second children go from ¥50,000 to ¥100,000.

The expansion is the centerpiece of the town’s FY2026 budget, a ¥11.2 billion general account, up 3.7% from the prior year. Hokkaido’s Child Policy Bureau confirmed it is the highest municipal birth bonus in the prefecture as of FY2025.

Why it matters: Japan is in the grip of a demographic crisis that former PM Kishida called the country’s “last chance”to reverse. Births fell below 700,000 for the first time in 2024, just 686,061, a ninth consecutive record low. The national fertility rate sank to 1.15. Hokkaido’s was even worse: 1.01.

Yoichi’s announcement arrives alongside new research suggesting that municipal choices, not just national policy, may matter more for birth rates than national transfers.

The research: A study covering all 1,741 Japanese municipalities, published in the Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, calculated local “desired birth rates” and found enormous variation, from 0.81 to 1.97, a 143% spread between the lowest and highest. Only 15% of municipalities can realistically hit the national target of 1.8 even under optimistic assumptions. Under conservative assumptions, none can.

The strongest predictor by far: child welfare spending. Municipalities that allocate a larger budget share to child services show dramatically higher desired birth rates, with a regression coefficient of 0.47, dwarfing all other factors. Kasuga Town in Fukuoka pushes this to an extreme, directing roughly 41% of its municipal budget to child welfare, about triple what comparable cities spend.

Other significant factors: working close to home (0.19 SD higher desired rates), car commuting flexibility over rigid train schedules, kindergarten access, and community festival culture, which likely reflects the informal childcare support networks that emerge from repeated neighborhood interaction.

The success stories: The research isn’t just theoretical. Several Japanese municipalities have already demonstrated that local policy can move fertility rates:

• Akashi (明石市), west of Kobe, hit a fertility rate of 1.65 against a national 1.3 under former mayor Fusaho Izumi, who doubled child welfare spending by cutting public works, not raising taxes. Akashi offers free medical care to age 18, free school lunches, free nursery for families with 2+ children, and free diapers delivered by midwives.

• Nagareyama (流山市), a Tokyo suburb, reached 1.50 vs. the national 1.26 by building station-based childcare pickup systems that let parents commute to central Tokyo while children are shuttled to daycare. It’s working: 29% of its elementary school families have three or more children.

• Nagoya’s metro area shows no urban fertility penalty, unlike Tokyo and Osaka, which both show identical -0.26 coefficients. The difference traces to fiscal priorities: Nagoya-area municipalities spend significantly more on family support.

The big picture: Across Japan, shrinking rural towns are locked in an escalating bidding war for young families, offering ever-larger cash bonuses, free childcare, and housing subsidies to stem outflows. The national government itself has pledged ¥3.6 trillion (~$22.3 billion) annually in child-rearing support, with phased implementation beginning in FY2026.

Since 2023 and a few prime minsters, Asahi Shimbun poll found 73% of respondents don’t believe national measures will halt the declining birth rate, skepticism grounded in three decades of similar initiatives producing minimal results. The research suggests why: time poverty from commuting, spatial constraints from housing costs, and social infrastructure from community networks matter as much as income transfers. These require local control over zoning, transit, public space, and budgets, levers that national policy barely touches.

By the numbers:

• 16,954: Yoichi’s population as of January 2025, down from ~26,600 in 1980, projected to fall to ~9,600 by 2050

• 40.8%: Share of Yoichi residents aged 65 or older, vs. ~30% nationally

• 7.2%: Share of Yoichi’s population that are women aged 20–39, vs. 10.3% nationally

The backstory: Yoichi’s mayor, Keisuke Saito (齊藤啓輔), is a former Foreign Ministry official who served at the Japanese Embassy in Moscow and in the Prime Minister’s Office before pivoting to local government. He was elected in 2018 at age 36 and has pursued a modernization push since, forging partnerships with companies like Nitori and Pixie Dust Technologies and recruiting private-sector talent into town administration.

The town, best known internationally as the home of the Nikka Whisky Yoichi Distillery and Hokkaido’s largest wine-grape growing region, has seen its population decline steadily since peaking around 1960.

Yes, but: The critical question is whether a one-time cash payment amounts to the kind of sustained child welfare spending that the research identifies as actually moving fertility rates.

Akashi didn’t boost its fertility to 1.65 with baby bonuses. It reallocated ongoing budget to reduce the continuous cost and logistical burden of raising children. Nagareyama didn’t hand out checks; it built station childcare infrastructure that solved the daily operational problem of dual-income parenting.

The 1,741-municipality study’s strongest predictor isn’t lump-sum payments but sustained budget allocation to child welfare as a share of total spending. A ¥1 million bonus at birth is roughly equivalent to 8 months of average daycare costs, meaningful but finite. The question for Yoichi is whether the bonus is the headline for a broader reallocation, or the whole policy.

Private-sector comparisons are instructive but limited. SoftBank offers ¥1 million for a third child and ¥5 million from the fifth onward; Daiwa House has paid ¥1 million per birth since 2005 and reports a 1% attrition rate among recipients. But corporate retention dynamics are fundamentally different from a small Hokkaido town competing against Sapporo and Tokyo for young families.

Yoichi also faces a structural headwind: Hokkaido and Tohoku show the lowest desired birth rates in the country, part of a west-high, east-low pattern that correlates with community trust and civic engagement. Remote island communities show elevated fertility desires even controlling for income and services, but remote mountainous areas like much of Hokkaido do not.

The evidence from Akashi, Nagareyama, and Nagoya shows that local governments can meaningfully boost birth rates. But what works is sustained child welfare spending and infrastructure, not one-time payments. Whether Yoichi’s bonus is the start of a deeper fiscal reorientation, or a headline in search of a strategy, will determine whether it joins the success stories or the long list of well-intentioned gestures that didn’t move the needle.

Why it matters

This marks Tokyo's first direct-to-resident housing subsidy program and represents a potential shift in how Japanese municipalities address housing shortages.

By the numbers

• ¥300,000: Annual subsidy amount per household

• 2 years: Maximum duration of assistance

• 4:1: Current competition ratio for public housing in Suginami

• 36: Number of qualifying households from last year's lottery

The big picture

Suginami Ward Mayor Satoko Kishimoto announced the new subsidy as part of the ward's 2025 budget, fulfilling a campaign promise from her 2022 election.

• The program specifically targets single-parent households and families with three or more children who failed to secure public housing through the ward's lottery system.

• It aims to solve two problems simultaneously: helping low-income residents find stable housing while utilizing vacant private rental units.

Between the lines

"Housing is a right," Kishimoto stated during the budget announcement, emphasizing that "securing stable housing is an essential requirement for living a healthy and cultured life."

• The ward will also offer moving cost subsidies: ¥150,000 for single residents and ¥200,000 for households of two or more people.

The catch

The program faces scrutiny over whether direct financial assistance to individuals is an appropriate use of public funds.

Kishimoto acknowledged this challenge, noting: "That's precisely why we've clearly defined the eligible recipients and limited the period to a maximum of two years. Through this assistance, we aim to support and encourage self-sufficiency in the medium to long term."

What to watch

If successful, this approach could become a model for other Tokyo wards and Japanese municipalities struggling with public housing shortages and growing numbers of vacant private properties.

Ichikawa City, located in Japan's Chiba Prefecture, is launching a groundbreaking housing support program for couples — including LGBTQ partnerships — before they officially marry or register their partnership.

Why it matters: This marks Japan's first municipal program extending housing benefits to couples before marriage, reflecting a progressive shift in how Japanese local governments approach relationship recognition and support.

The big picture: The initiative, called the “Marriage Preparation (Ichikawa Pre-Wedding) and Newlywed Housing Support Project,” launches in fiscal 2025 with these key features:

• Available to couples under 40 with a combined annual income below ¥6 million (~$40,000)

• Includes LGBTQ and international couples

• Provides up to ¥290,000 (~$1,910) in total support

• Covers both moving expenses and monthly rent subsidies

Context:

• Ichikawa City introduced a partnership registration system for same-sex couples in 2022

• The program aims to combat declining birth rates while encouraging long-term residency.

• The city focuses on creating a society where people can live comfortably regardless of gender identity or sexual orientation.

Between the lines: Mayor Ko Tanaka explicitly positioned the program as a counterpoint to Trump's anti-diversity rhetoric, emphasizing Ichikawa's commitment to LGBTQ inclusion during a February 5 press conference.

By the numbers:

• ¥50,000 (~$330) for moving expenses

• ¥20,000 (~$130) monthly rent subsidy for up to one year

• Program budget: ¥100 million (~$659,000) as part of the city budget

• Total proposed city budget: ¥188.6 billion (~$1.25 billion)

What's next:

• The program goes to the city council on February 13

• If approved, benefits will retroactively apply to couples who moved after March 1, 2025

• Eligible couples must have resident registration in Ichikawa City

Bottomline: Eligible couples could receive up to two years of support by combining this with the national government's separate newlywed support program, which offers similar benefits. This dual approach marks a significant step in Japan's evolving approach to relationship recognition and demographic challenges.

What's happening: Tokyo's Chiyoda Ward will provide ¥15,000 ($100) monthly to all middle and high school students residing in the district, regardless of household income. The program launches in the new fiscal year starting April 2025.

By the numbers:

• Affects approximately 3,000 students

• Annual budget: ¥540 million ($3.6 million)

• Payment: ¥15,000 per student monthly

Why it matters: This move comes amid rising inflation in Japan and growing concerns about educational expenses. Middle and high school students typically incur higher costs than elementary school students due to cram schools (juku) and extracurricular activities.

The big picture: Chiyoda, home to Japan's political and business district, has been aggressive in implementing family-support policies, including:

• Free school lunches

• Free diaper programs

• Additional support for families with children

What they're saying: "There's a significant cost gap between elementary and middle/high school education. We want to provide additional support for families during these more expensive educational years," says recently re-elected Chiyoda Ward Mayor Takaaki Higuchi.

Context: The Tokyo Metropolitan Government already provides ¥5,000 monthly for residents under 18. Tokyo and Osaka have implemented free high school education programs, including private schools.

What's next: The ward will finalize program details, including:

• Exact launch date

• Residency requirements

• Distribution method

The initiative will be included in the upcoming fiscal year's budget proposal, which is expected later this month.

Gov. Gavin Newsom signed SB 1211, dramatically expanding opportunities for accessory dwelling units (ADUs) on multifamily properties.

Why it matters: ADUs, also known as granny flats, second units, or backyard cottages, are the fastest-growing sector of California's housing market. They are often the quickest infill units to build.

The details:

• SB 1211 quadruples the number of detached ADUs allowed on multifamily properties from two to eight.

• These ADUs can be approved with a ministerial permit, avoiding long permitting times.

• Property owners can replace carports or driveways with ADUs without being required to replace that parking.

• The bill applies to properties with apartments, condos, or townhouses.

What they're saying: "SB 1211 will further boost California's ADU market by increasing the number of detached ADUs allowed on multifamily properties that can be approved quickly and avoid long permitting times," said Sen. Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley), the bill's author and chair of the Senate Housing Committee.

Context: ADUs have been booming in California due to:

• Lower construction costs compared to traditional housing

• Easier building process (now even easier!)

• Recent laws removing obstacles and streamlining permitting

By the numbers:

• Current limit: 2 detached ADUs on multifamily properties

• New limit: 8 detached ADUs

• Effective date: January 1, 2025

The big picture: This bill is part of a larger suite of housing bills signed by Gov. Newsom on September 19, 2024, to help California's housing shortage.

What's next:

• Housing experts will watch how quickly property owners take advantage of these new provisions.

New Bedford Mayor Jon Mitchell is proposing three zoning reforms to boost housing construction and development throughout the city. One reform is to have smaller developments approved by internal city planning staff instead of the Planning Board.

Why it matters: Planning Boards, Boards of Supervisors, Zoning Boards, or whatever nomenclature tend to be boards whose members are appointed like New Bedford or elected like San Fransico's Board of Supervisors. Then often hold hearings and give people to put in their input on construction or housing projects, which bad faith actors, usually called NIMBYs, frequently abuse. Jon Mitchell's reforms would be an interesting case study to see if moving to an internal staff would remove this veto point.

Details: The three key reforms are:

1. Administrative Site Plan review procedure

   • Streamlines approval for smaller developments

   • City planning staff, not Planning Board, would review:

     • New industrial and commercial construction or expansions less than 5,000 sq ft

     • Multifamily Housing with 4-6 units

     • Ground signs

   • Makes triple-decker construction a by-right use

     • It can be built with just a building permit if dimensional and parking requirements are met

2. Kings Highway Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Overlay District

   • Covers most of the area between Mount Pleasant St. and Church St., from Nash Rd. north to Tarkiln Hill Rd.

   • Some industrial areas south of Nash Rd. and an area north of Kings Highway behind Stop & Shop are included.

   • Does not include residential areas on the west side of Mount Pleasant St. or the east side of Church St.

   • Encourages new uses for large, underutilized properties such as:

     • Fieldstone Plaza (formerly Newport Creamery, Shaw's, and Flagship Cinemas)

     • Belleville Warehouse on King St.

     • Chamberlain Mill on King St.

     • Former Payne Cutlery on Church St. and Coffin Ave.

   • Promotes Multifamily Housing, restaurants, coffee shops, office space, and light industrial applications

   • Includes design standards to ensure:

     • Neighborhood context consideration

     • Reasonable scale development

     • Incorporation of sustainability measures

3. Modernized Zoning Table of Uses

   • Adds dozens of contemporary uses, including:

     • Breweries

     • Townhouses

     • Biotech manufacturing

     • Neighborhood cafés

     • Maritime trade

   • Creates performance and design standards to:

     • Encourage compatible development

     • Eliminate potential negative impacts on adjacent properties

What's next:

• The City Council has referred the proposals to its Ordinance Committee and Planning Board for review

• The Planning Board will offer recommendations before the final vote

Bottomline: These comprehensive reforms could significantly reshape New Bedford's housing and development landscape, particularly in underutilized areas like the Kings Highway corridor, while streamlining the approval process for smaller projects citywide.

Governor Yuriko Koike announced plans to abolish income restrictions on child medical expense subsidies in Tokyo by October 2025.

Why it matters: This move aims to level the playing field across Tokyo's municipalities, as many have already eliminated these restrictions using local funds.

By the numbers: As of April 2024, 11 cities and villages still had income caps for high school students' healthcare subsidies.

Between the lines: Tokyo's 23 special wards currently offer "complete free medical care" for children, while some areas in Tama and on the islands still maintain income restrictions, along with Koike's announcement comes after her re-election promise in July and aligns with demands from major parties in the metropolitan assembly.

What's next: The metropolitan government will:

• Accelerate discussions with municipalities to increase support amounts

• Establish a new child consultation center in Meguro Ward by fiscal 2031

Also on the agenda: The assembly will consider:

• An ordinance to prevent customer harassment

• A ¥37.7 billion supplementary budget for inflation relief measures

Bottomline: This isn’t Koike's first push for a more family-friendly Tokyo. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government also plans to abolish means testing on financial aid, effectively granting free education to students at high schools and metropolitan universities. Koike aims to create a more supportive environment for families across Tokyo, addressing disparities between different areas of the metropolis.

Montana's Supreme Court has overturned a lower court ruling, allowing two state laws to increase housing supply to take effect. This decision marks a significant shift in the state's approach to urban development and affordable housing.

Why it matters: These laws could reshape Montana's urban landscape by mandating more diverse housing options in cities, potentially addressing the state's housing shortage but, as always, bringing out the usual NIMBY criticism and faux concerns.

Key Details:

• The court reversed a preliminary injunction on laws expanding where duplexes and accessory dwelling units can be built.

• The decision allows Senate Bills 323 and 528 to be implemented, affecting cities with populations over 5,000.

• The lawsuit, filed by Montanans Against Irresponsible Densification, argued that the laws weren't carefully tailored and threatened existing neighborhoods.

• SB 323 requires larger cities to allow duplexes wherever single-family homes are permitted.

• SB 528 mandates all cities and towns to allow accessory dwelling units on single-family home lots.

• The laws were part of a series of bills passed in the 2023 legislative session to address Montana's housing shortage.

• The Supreme Court ruled there wasn't enough evidence to show specific and imminent harm to homeowners challenging the laws.

State of play:

• The laws were set to take effect on January 1, 2024, but a lower court judge temporarily halted them.

• Retired District Judge Mike Salvagni initially heard the case after the original presiding judge was substituted at the request of the Montana Attorney General's Office.

• A five-justice panel of the Montana Supreme Court decided to allow the laws to proceed.

• These bills received bipartisan support during the 2023 legislative session.

• Senate President Jason Ellsworth (R-Hamilton) praised the court's decision, criticizing the lower court's "judicial activism."

• Governor Greg Gianforte also supported the ruling, emphasizing the importance of home ownership and affordable housing.

What's next:

• The case returns to the district court for a ruling on the overall merits of the plaintiffs' claims.

• Two other related laws are also being challenged in the same lawsuit:

  • SB 382 establishes a new land-use planning process for cities with a population of over 5,000 and counties with a population of over 70,000.

  • SB 245 requires certain municipalities to allow multi-unit housing developments in commercial zones.

The bottom line: This ruling represents a win for pro-housing reform advocates but sets the stage for continued debate over urban development in Montana. Implementing these laws could significantly impact housing availability and urban planning across the state.

The US birthrate has reached a historic low after slightly increasing and stagnating from 2020 to 2022. After the end of the miniature baby boom in 2023, the rise of return-to-office mandates, rising housing costs, and the end of the expanded child tax credit. People still wonder why the fertility rate started to decline rapidly again. Some, like Sarah Hayford, director of the Institute for Population Research at Ohio State University, say, "Not having children, or having fewer children, is becoming more socially acceptable." despite recent polls suggesting that Americans do want more children.

By the numbers

• 2% decline in US births from 2022 to 2023

• 3% drop in general fertility rate to 54.5 births per 1,000 females aged 15-44

• 4% decrease in birth rates for teenagers aged 15-19

• 1% decrease in mothers receiving first-trimester prenatal care

• 5% increase in mothers receiving no prenatal care

Between the lines

The accelerated decline follows a short-lived increase in births. Temporary factors like pandemic-related lifestyle changes and economic support measures may have shown us that the US can reduce or even reverse the downward trend using aggressive policy.

The bottom line

Economic factors and policy changes play a significant role, while others blame changing social norms. Understanding the interplay between these factors is crucial for addressing potential demographic challenges and supporting families who wish to have children.

The Minnesota Supreme Court's decision not to review the environmental lawsuit against Minneapolis' 2040 Comprehensive Plan marks a pivotal moment in a six-year YIMBY saga.

Why it matters: This development is a win for the city and those who want to increase housing affordability, but it doesn't end the lawsuit entirely.

Key details:

• The 2040 Plan, lauded by urbanists nationwide for ending single-family zoning, faced opposition from NIMBY groups claiming that the plan doesn't include environmental impacts of increased density.

• Court orders have repeatedly suspended and restarted 2040-related projects.

• New housing construction in Minneapolis has been thrown into limbo.

• An appeals court reinstated the plan in May, citing "unnecessary hardship" if thrown out entirely.

Between the lines:

• According to attorney Jack Perry in the case documents, the lawsuit's goal was not to punish the city but to ensure proper environmental review of the plan.

• Smart Growth Minneapolis, Minnesota Citizens for the Protection of Migratory Birds, and the Audubon Chapter of Minneapolis initiated the lawsuit in 2018.

The backstory:

• In 2021, the Minnesota Supreme Court ruled that residents could sue local governments' comprehensive plans under the Minnesota Environmental Rights Act (MERA).

  • This ruling allowed challenges to comprehensive plans, even though they are theoretical and lack details of individual development projects.

Legislative efforts:

• The city of Minneapolis and the Minnesota Chapter of the American Planning Association worked to change state law.

  • They sought to define the adoption of municipal comprehensive plans as conduct that would not cause pollution under MERA, exempting them from environmental reviews.

  • Environmental groups opposed a 2023 bill as "needlessly broad" but supported a 2024 version protecting plans from density-based challenges.

• The law passed in the 2024 legislative session attempts to protect Minneapolis and St. Paul's current plans from MERA legal challenges.

What's next: As the case returns to the district court, where:

• The city will attempt to dismiss the lawsuit.

• NIMBYs are expected to ask GOP-affiliated Judge Joseph Klein for a new remedy following their previous summary judgment victory.

Bottomline: While the Supreme Court's decision is a step forward for the city, the legal battle over the Minneapolis 2040 Plan is far from over, with potential implications for urban planning and environmental review processes.

A $5.16 billion housing bond bill passed in Massachusetts, with accessory dwelling units (ADUs) as the killer feature against the state's housing shortage.

Why it matters: According to the governor's office, ADUs could create up to 10,000 new housing units across Massachusetts in the next five years.

The big picture: The bill, sent to Gov. Maura Healey on Thursday morning, aims to address the state's housing crisis through various measures.

Details on the ADU provision:

• Requires cities and towns to allow ADUs by right in single-family zones

• Caps parking mandates at one spot per unit for ADUs further than ½ mile from public transit

• Bans owner occupancy requirements

Between the lines: This change allows more minor additions to larger single-family homes, potentially increasing housing density in suburban areas.

Yes, but: Several other proposals didn't cut, including:

• $1 billion for expanding the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority to the South Shore

• Measures to make landlords pay broker's fees instead of tenants

• Grants for rural, small-town, and mid-sized suburban housing

• $150 million for converting unused commercial spaces into residential properties

• $50 million for a "Healthy Homes" program to address lead paint and other housing health issues

What made it in:

• $2 billion for public housing

• $800 million for affordable units

• Expanded seasonal communities designation

• Extended condo conversion law to cover smaller two- and three-family units

• Eviction sealing measure

• Prohibition on home purchase offers that waive or limit the buyer's right to a home inspection

How it passed:

• House: 128-24 vote (not strictly along party lines)

• Senate: 37-2 vote

What's next: The bill now awaits Gov. Healey's signature.

Columbus City Council unanimously passed sweeping zoning changes on Monday, paving the way for denser development and taller buildings in parts of the city.

Why it matters: The changes aim to address Columbus' growing population, ease the housing shortage, and improve access to affordable housing.

The big picture: The new zoning laws, part of the "Zone In" initiative, will allow buildings up to 16 stories tall along major routes with no parking requirements in some areas.

• City officials say this will streamline the development approval process and reduce the need for variances.

• The changes target 12,300 parcels throughout Columbus, primarily along major transportation corridors.

By the numbers:

• Up to 16 stories: Maximum height allowed in the most intensive "Urban Core" category

• Five categories: New zoning designations ranging from "Urban General" to "Urban Core"

• Eliminates parking requirements in some zones, especially near transit and commercial areas

Between the lines: Council members argue the changes will help modernize the city's 70-year-old zoning code and proactively address issues of evictions and rising housing costs.

What they're saying: Council members and local leaders support the changes, which highlight potential benefits for affordable housing and address historical inequities in zoning.

Yes, but: NIMBYs and some residents expressed concerns about civic associations losing negotiating power with developers and the potential elimination of "naturally affordable" commercial real estate.

What's next: City officials view this as the beginning of a process, with discussions about future zoning changes likely to continue.

Bottomline: As Columbus braces for significant population growth in coming years, these zoning changes represent a major shift in the city's approach to development and housing.

Singapore's baby drought deepens, with 2023 seeing the lowest number of births in at least 50 years. Meanwhile, deaths remain high, exacerbating the country's demographic challenges.

By the numbers:

• 33,541 babies born in 2023, down 5.8% from 2022 and 13.3% from 2021

• Total fertility rate hit a record low of 0.97

• 26,888 deaths in 2023, virtually unchanged from 2022 but 10.7% higher than in 2021

Why it matters: The falling birth rate and aging population strain resources and threaten economic dynamism. Fewer working adults will need to support a growing elderly population.

Driving the news: On July 11, the Immigration and Checkpoints Authority released its annual report on births and deaths.

Between the lines:

• Cost of living concerns and changing social norms contribute to the declining birth rate

• Women disproportionately bear the costs of childrearing, affecting career prospects

• High expectations for children's academic performance add pressure on potential parents

What's new: For the first time, the report includes data on babies registered with double-barrelled race, reflecting growing inter-ethnic marriages.

• 28.4% of babies born to parents of different races had double-barrelled race in 2023, up from 12.9% in 2014

The bottom line: Without increased immigration, Singapore's population could shrink if current trends continue, posing significant challenges for the nation's future.

Japan's birthrate crisis reached a new level of severity in 2023, with births plummeting to a distressing record low of 727,000, as the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reported.

By the numbers:

• The fertility rate dropped to 1.20, down from 1.26 in 2022.

• The 8th consecutive year of decline and the lowest level since statistics began in 1947.

• Tokyo had the lowest fertility rate at 0.99, while Okinawa had the highest at 1.60.

Between the lines: The declining marriage rate and the increasing age at first marriage for both men (31.1) and women (29.7) are contributing factors to the birthrate crisis.

The government warns that the 2030s, when the second baby boomer generation's population will rapidly decrease, is the last chance to curb the declining birthrate.

New legislation aims to address the declining birthrate

On June 5th, the government passed a bill to address the issue.

Key provisions:

• Expanding child allowance eligibility to include high school-age children and eliminating income restrictions.

• Doubling the payment amount for the third and subsequent children to 30,000 yen per month.

• Introducing a nationwide "universal childcare system" from April 2026.

Yes, but: Measures will take time to implement, especially in childcare. Other factors, such as work hours, long commutes, a rising percentage of contractors, etc., are accelerating the decline. Countries and smaller governments (including several cities and towns in Japan!) have stabilized or reversed the fertility rate decline through constant and consistent efforts that the national government simply isn't making.

On Tuesday, the Cincinnati City Council committee voted 6-3 to approve the "Connected Communities" plan, a significant zoning reform sponsored by Mayor Aftab Pureval and Council Members Reggie Harris and Jeff Cramerding. The proposal focuses on changes in neighborhood business districts and along major transit corridors, allowing housing with up to four units and reducing or eliminating density caps and parking minimums. The plan is all but guarantees the final passage on Wednesday.

Details:

• The plan targets specific areas for comprehensive zoning reform, aiming for gradual change based on housing market forces.

• Councilmembers Jeff Cramerding, Mark Jeffreys, Reggie Harris, Anna Albi, Seth Walsh, and Meeka Owens voted in favor, believing the reform will make Cincinnati a city where the next generation wants to live and encourage growth.

• Vice Mayor Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney and Councilmembers Scotty Johnson and Victoria Parks voted against, citing concerns about the lack of mandatory affordable housing and potential displacement of residents.

• Kearney and Johnson released a motion before the vote requesting a "short-term task force" to make policy recommendations on affordable housing, infrastructure needs, architectural design guidelines, and tree canopy and green space, which will be considered in a future committee meeting.

• Parks proposed an amendment to separate the zoning part from the motion and address it later, but the request was not moved forward.

Reactions:

• Supporters, like Ben Eilerman of Over-the-Rhine Community Housing, say the city needs to loosen zoning to increase population and make developing affordable housing easier, but also call for incentives and requirements for developers to create more affordable housing in exchange for city subsidies.

• Opponents, such as the NIMBY organization "Coalition for a Better Cincinnati," criticize the community engagement process, reusing the same arguments used by other NIMBY groups, claiming it reached only a small, mostly white portion of the city's population. Some fear multifamily housing will destroy affected neighborhoods by removing single-family zoning protections or lowering property values.

What's next:

• The ordinance passed as an emergency measure, meaning it will go into effect immediately and cannot be overturned by a referendum.

• The city website provides several resources for understanding the plan, including FAQs, interactive maps, neighborhood-specific maps, and the full text of the ordinance.

Bottomline: While the Connected Communities plan aims to reform zoning and encourage growth in Cincinnati, it still faces the same threats of NIMBYism pretending to be concerned about affordable housing, community engagement, and the potential impact on neighborhoods. The City Council must prepare for a fight as the plan is implemented, and NIMBYs will pursue legal action or referendums to challenge the changes.

Japan has passed the revised Child and Childcare Support Law, which includes measures to expand support for households with children. The law abolishes the income limit for child allowance and creates a support fund system to finance the increased spending. The bill was passed by a majority vote in the House of Councilors plenary session on June 5, 2024.

Details:

• The child allowance payment period will be extended from "up to junior high school students" to "up to high school students."

• The additional amount for the third and subsequent children will be doubled.

• The "anyone can attend childcare system" will be implemented nationwide, allowing children to use daycare centers regardless of their parents' employment status.

• The government aims to secure 3.6 trillion yen in financial resources by FY2028, with the support fund covering 1 trillion yen.

• The support fund will be collected in stages from FY2026, in addition to public health insurance.

By the numbers:

• Average monthly burden per person (FY2028) for employee insurance: 800 yen

• Health insurance associations for employees of large companies: 850 yen per insured person

• Mutual aid associations for public servants: 950 yen per insured person

• Annual income of 6 million yen: 1,000 yen

• Annual income of 8 million yen: 1,350 yen

• Medical care system for the elderly aged 75 and over: 350 yen per person

• National health insurance for self-employed people: 600 yen per household

Yes, But: Opposition parties argue that the support fund will burden the public more, despite the government's claims that expenditure reforms will offset the costs. Makoto Oniki of the Constitutional Democratic Party criticized the fund in a dissenting discussion at the plenary session of the House of Councillors on June 5, stating, "It is nothing more than a system that takes from where it is easy to take to avoid criticism of tax increases."

That said: Other countries, such as the United Kingdom, France, the United States, etc, have taken past measures to reduce or eliminate (rather than expand) child benefits to reduce the public burden.

Background:

• The government has decided on an action plan for child measures to promote measures against declining birth rates and poverty.

• The support fund is intended to help the government secure financial resources to enhance family support.

Bottomline: While the revised Child Support Law aims to enhance support for child-rearing households, the introduction of the support fund system has raised concerns about the potential financial burden on the public. It remains to be seen whether the public will understand and accept the government's explanation that there will be no actual burden due to expenditure reforms and other measures.

According to Statistics Korea, South Korea's fertility rate reached a new low in the first quarter of the year, with the number of babies born in March setting another record low.

By the numbers

• 19,669 babies were born in March, down 7.3% from a year earlier, marking the lowest for March since 1981.

• The number of deaths increased by 7.6% to 31,160, resulting in a natural population decline of 11,491.

• The fertility rate for the January-March period was 0.76, down 0.06 from a year earlier, and far below the 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain a stable population.

• The number of babies born over the first quarter was 60,474, down 6.2% year-on-year.

The big picture: South Korea faces severe demographic challenges as more young people postpone or forego marriage and having children due to changing social norms, lifestyles, high home prices, a tough job market, and an economic slowdown.

• The number of married couples fell 5.5% year-on-year to 17,198, while those getting divorced decreased by 9.8% to 7,450.

• The population is expected to drop in nearly all regions by 2052, except for Gyeonggi Province and the central city of Sejong.

• The number of South Koreans aged 14 and below is projected to plunge from 5.95 million in 2022 (11.5% of the total population) to 3.61 million (7.8%) in 2052.

• In contrast, the number of individuals aged 65 and above is expected to reach 18.86 million (40.8%) by 2052.

Bottomline

South Korea's record-low birth rates and aging population pose significant challenges for the country's future economic growth and social welfare systems.

What we have done

• We've been working to provide a consistent source of focused news on two critical issues affecting Millennials and younger generations: family support and housing.

• We've been summarizing academic research on housing and family policy, creating a central hub where you can access the main points of these studies. We believe that making the papers more accessible is crucial for keeping people up-to-date

What we want to do

• We want to start interviewing researchers about their papers and hosting these interviews on platforms like Apple, Spotify, and Substack. We'll also publish the transcripts on Substack for those who prefer to read along or catch up later. 

• We would also like to host AMAs with the researchers.

• We're also working on publishing meta-articles that delve into common themes found in research papers or emerging trends we see

• We're cautiously exploring including articles and papers on related topics, such as unemployment benefits, environmental efforts like Las Vegas's impressive water management, and public health initiatives like Operation Warpspeed.

Lessons Learned

• We've realized that relying on established platforms like Substack is the most pragmatic approach. Despite our initial efforts to create our own websites and documentation apps and our volunteers' great work, the friction involved proved to be a significant hindrance. Substack minimizes this friction for our members, allowing us to focus on producing high-quality content.

• Social media has emerged as a powerful tool for reaching our audience. Most of our members discover us through shares on Reddit, Facebook, Twitter, Blue Sky, and LinkedIn. We've learned that harnessing the power of personal recommendations and shareability is far more effective than depending on search engines, which can be unpredictable and often require compromising content quality for SEO purposes.

• Finally, we've found that maintaining specialized and focused sites is essential. Our readers appreciate that population.fyi is dedicated to research, while population.news provides targeted news updates.

We're deeply grateful for our progress thus far, and we attribute much of it to your continued support. Thank you for being a part of our community and your unwavering commitment to our cause.

We will open Substack Chat for anyone who wants to give thoughts or feedback. Also feel free to email ddeek@population.news for private thoughts, feedback, or if you want to volunteer

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs signed two significant housing bills on Tuesday, aiming to expand housing options and improve affordability for Arizonans. The bills will limit cities' ability to restrict backyard casitas and require denser housing near city centers.

• The "casita bill" (HB 2720) allows single-family homeowners in 15 cities to build up to two backyard rentals by right, with larger lots permitted to have three units. Cities cannot impose parking requirements or mandate that the units match the main home's appearance.

• The "middle housing" bill (HB 2721) requires cities with populations over 75,000 to allow the construction of duplexes, triplexes, and townhomes on all single-family lots within a mile of central business districts.

Why it matters

Arizona has been grappling with a severe affordable housing shortage in recent years, caused by factors such as the Great Recession, population growth, and investor activity. These bills aim to address the issue by increasing housing density and variety.

Yes, but

NIMBYs opposed the casita bill, arguing that it lacked restrictions on short-term rentals and could exacerbate concerns about "party houses." Gov. Hobbs acknowledged that this “issue” could be addressed later.

Additional Details:

• The new laws will not apply to newer single-family home areas covered by homeowners' associations, which are contracts that lawmakers believe they cannot legally override.

• These bills are part of a series of housing measures Gov. Hobbs has signed this year, including allowing "adaptive reuse" of old commercial sites and setting time limits on city zoning change decisions.

Gov. Hobbs praised the bipartisan nature of the votes and expressed pride in signing the measures. "I'm glad the Legislature heard my calls to come to the table to pass commonsense, bipartisan legislation that will expand housing options and help mitigate the effects of rising costs to make life more affordable for everyday Arizonans," she said.

Bottomline

The signing of these bills marks a significant step in Arizona's efforts to address its housing crisis. However, it is still insufficient, and much more work must be done. Gov. Hobbs has also taken other steps to appeal to other groups, including investing in the state's Housing Trust Fund and creating a mortgage assistance program for homebuyers.

Cincinnati's city planning commission voted 6-0 last Friday to pass Connected Communities, a proposed rewrite of the city's zoning code to increase density. However, the plan has faced growing opposition from residents concerned about its impact on parking, infrastructure, and potential exploitation by landlords.

Driving the news

After a five-hour public comment session, the commission approved the plan, with Vice Mayor Jan-Michele Lemon Kearney abstaining. Mayor Aftab Pureval argued that the plan would lower rents by allowing more rowhomes citywide for first-time homebuyers.

• Kearney questioned how the plan would create more affordable housing and suggested that community input could improve it further.

• At least 170 people signed up to speak at the meeting, with Chairman Byron Stallworth calling the day a "wild ride." In the end, 84 people spoke, 48 opposing the plan and 36 supporting it.

• Mt. Auburn resident Rico Blackman, 26, voiced opposition and noted the lack of Black representation among the speakers. The city said it intentionally gathered opinions from Black residents, as Cincinnati's zoning code has historically led to segregation and displacement.

What they're saying

"If we don't make a change, we will only be a city for wealthy people," Pureval said.

• Opponents worry about the plan's effects on parking, aging infrastructure, and the potential for predatory landlords to exploit renters.

• Pureval contested the lack of engagement, stating that the city's planning department and elected officials spent two years on public outreach, hosting 34 events or meetings and conducting personal outreach to community councils.

• Speaker and East Hyde Park resident Michael Hauser noted: "You have succeeded in connecting communities ... I don't believe we've ever been so connected."

What's next

The planning commission's recommendation means the legislation will be reviewed by the city council's budget and finance committee on June 3 before requiring approval from the full nine-member council. At least nine community councils have formally opposed the plan, while many remain unsure and want more information.